Statistics, Damned Statistics, And Lies

As another small measure of the dishonesty of Fox News, note this report on the release of a new presidential approval poll. The Rasmussen daily tracking poll was cited this evening by Fox anchor and managing editor Brit Hume. Hume’s characterization of the poll, complete with a graphic to illustrate the point, was that Bush is enjoying a burst of popularity.

Bush Job Approval
Approve Disapprove
July 16 39 58
July 15 39 58
July 14 39 59
July 13 36 62
July 12 34 64
July 11 33 65
July 10 35 63
July 09 39 59

He compared the latest figure (39%) to the number on July 11 (33%), excitedly remarking as to the precipitous jump in Bush’s favor. Had he gone back just two more days he would have seen that Bush’s approval had not actually changed at all as compared to today. The July 11 number was a brief and unexplained anomaly and may have represented an event that took place on that day but had no lasting impact on the President’s overall approval. This, in fact, is one of the pitfalls of tracking polls and professionals know not to place undue significance on the short-term volatility of daily reporting. I guess that’s what tripped up Mr. Hume – the part about being a professional.

It is also worth noting that Rasmussen’s tracking poll varies from benchmark survey results for which 4 of the most recent 5 surveys put Bush under 30% approval.

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