Statistics, Damned Statistics, And Lies

As another small measure of the dishonesty of Fox News, note this report on the release of a new presidential approval poll. The Rasmussen daily tracking poll was cited this evening by Fox anchor and managing editor Brit Hume. Hume’s characterization of the poll, complete with a graphic to illustrate the point, was that Bush is enjoying a burst of popularity.

Bush Job Approval
Approve Disapprove
July 16 39 58
July 15 39 58
July 14 39 59
July 13 36 62
July 12 34 64
July 11 33 65
July 10 35 63
July 09 39 59

He compared the latest figure (39%) to the number on July 11 (33%), excitedly remarking as to the precipitous jump in Bush’s favor. Had he gone back just two more days he would have seen that Bush’s approval had not actually changed at all as compared to today. The July 11 number was a brief and unexplained anomaly and may have represented an event that took place on that day but had no lasting impact on the President’s overall approval. This, in fact, is one of the pitfalls of tracking polls and professionals know not to place undue significance on the short-term volatility of daily reporting. I guess that’s what tripped up Mr. Hume – the part about being a professional.

It is also worth noting that Rasmussen’s tracking poll varies from benchmark survey results for which 4 of the most recent 5 surveys put Bush under 30% approval.

Moyers On Impeachment

Last Friday, the Bill Moyers Journal on PBS presented a discussion of impeachment that was breathtakingly persuasive.

Here is part 1 of the program. heathr234 has the rest of the program on YouTube. Watch the whole thing. It is conveniently broken up into five parts, so take as much time as you need – but watch it.


This is must-see TV for anyone concerned about the welfare of our Constitutional Democracy. The commentaries on this program transcend party partisanship and ultimately amount to a plea for nothing less than patriotism. Why is there so little of this sort of journalism in practice these days?

Murdoch Hitman Shot Down By New York Times

Family boss Rupert Murdoch recently dispatched his PR Enforcer, Gary Ginsberg, to deliver a message to the New York Times. Murdoch was irked by a series of articles that exposed the way he and News Corp manipulated the media and politicians on behalf of his business interests. Unfortunately for Murdoch, his messenger was ambushed by an astute Clark Hoyt, the Times’ public editor.

Ginsberg wrote to Hoyt objecting to the series and alleging that the Times’ hidden intention was to throw a monkey wrench into Murdoch’s plans to acquire Dow Jones and the Wall Street Journal. Ironically, Murdoch and Ginsberg had no such complaints about a similar story published by the Journal itself. Contrast Ginsberg’s assessments of each paper’s efforts:

Ginsberg on the NY Times: “the primary motivation for doing such an extensive investigation … was in the end self-serving and commercial.”

Ginsberg on the Journal: “a very fair, objective piece.”

Why were Ginsberg’s views at such variance when both stories came to essentially the same conclusions? As Hoyt keenly reminds us…

“Murdoch is going to extraordinary lengths to reassure The Journal’s newsroom that he will not interfere with its independence, as a long and well-documented record indicates he has elsewhere.”

In other words, it would have been unwise to criticize the Journal because that would confirm everyone’s worst fears about Murdoch’s egocentric ambitions. However, the truth is that by gaming the system with praise for one paper and scorn for the other when there was so little difference between them, Murdoch is demonstrating his compulsion to manipulate perceptions in his own favor.

Ginsberg had a laundry list of complaints about the Times’ story that Hoyt shot down in rapid succession. It almost seemed to easy. For instance, the Times reported on a firm that lobbied on behalf of News Corp. for tax breaks. Ginsberg objected saying that there was no such firm. Hoyt responded by simply naming the firm (Hogan & Hartson) and the fees they received.

In another example, Ginsberg thought that reporting that News Corp. paid lobbyists to influence regulatory and legislative matters was unfair because other media companies did so as well. Again, Hoyt easily defends the paper by pointing out that the existence of other firms engaging in lobbying activities does nothing diminish such activities by News Corp. Hoyt might have gone even further by observing that the other media company’s lobbying efforts were, for the most part, in concert with News Corp. and were seeking the same redress.

It is encouraging that Hoyt has made such a thorough and aggressive defense of a well-written expose of News Corp. and Murdoch. But it is disturbing that Murdoch’s henchman steps into the fray with a litany of lies and misrepresentations. And the fact that these complaints were directed at the Times should not give solace to the directors and employees of the Wall Street Journal. They are getting a panoramic view of what life under Murdoch would be like. And the best single piece of advice I can extend is to … be afraid!