Last year Fox News suffered some of the most embarrassing episodes of journalistic failure in recent history. They were so determined to orchestrate a Republican victory that they repeatedly shifted their analysis of presidential polling based on whether or not their candidate was ahead. If Romney was leading in any poll, Fox would hype it relentlessly and celebrate the wisdom of the pollsters. But if Obama took the lead, Fox feverishly denounced the polls as biased and unbelievable. They even went so far as to ignore their own polls if the result was favorable to Obama.
Late in the presidential campaign an obscure blogger published what he claimed were “unskewed” polls. He re-weighted the partisan breakdowns on the published polling to presume higher numbers of Republicans in the electorate. After Obama’s decisive victory, Fox News, and the rest of the GOP establishment, were shamed by their diversion from reality. Their audience was furious at having been so flagrantly misled. A humbled Fox then fired and/or benched their most blatant info-manglers like Dick Morris and Karl Rove, and promised to do better in the future.
Well, so much for that promise. This morning’s headline on Fox News blared an utterly false rendering of poll results in the Massachusetts special election to fill John Kerry’s senate seat. The article, with no byline or source (but numerous grammatical errors), stated flatly that “Polls Show Gomez, Markey close in special election race for Mass senate seat.” However, that can only be true if you consider a 9.3 average advantage for Markey as being “close.” The lede paragraph declares…
“The Senate race is (sic) Massachusetts is deadlocked heading into the final weeks […] Yet most polls show first-time Republican candidate and former Navy SEAL Gabriel Gomez within just several percentage points of Democratic Rep. Edward Markey”
Actually, most polls show Markey with a sweeping lead. The RealClearPolitics average of polls for the race give Markey a 9.3% lead, and some polls have his lead as high as 12%. How Fox takes that data and describes the race as “deadlocked” is beyond explanation. What’s more, in a story that is ostensibly reporting poll results, the polling data is not even mentioned until the twenty-first paragraph of a twenty-four paragraph article. The whole thing reads like a press release from the Gomez campaign if it were written by a functionally illiterate press agent.
What Fox hopes to achieve with this brazenly dishonest reporting is hard to figure. If they think that by manufacturing a fake competitiveness in the race it will improve Gomez’s prospects for victory, they have learned nothing from their embarrassing behavior last year. More likely, they are merely fulfilling their role as the GOP PR agency whose duty is to hype Republican positions and politicians without regard for the truth. And if this is a prelude to how Fox will conduct itself in next year’s mid-term elections, we can expect another season of sensationally skewed reporting that woefully misinforms their gullible audience. Actually, it should be kinda fun.
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One of several fatal flaws of the FOX election guessers in Nov 2012 was that they expected a higher turnout of Republicans and a lower one of Democrats. Wishful thinking or otherwise, that didn’t happen. Doing it again is beyond comprehension.
There were many things about FOX and election guessing that was considered beyond comprehension before the last election. After the elections it was shown that those things weren’t beyond comprehension after all. FOX was more than willing to close both their eyes and the eyes of the audience to the actual polling demographics (there were other polls and sources that predicted nearer to the actual results of the election than Fox’s way-off-the mark Rmoney landslide scenario courtesy of Karl Rove. Why didn’t Fox pay any attention to those and instead focused on Rove ?)
That shows that where Fox and elections are concerned, nothing is too incomprehensible. Doing it again would probably be par for the course for them, but if you don’t think so, be prepared to be surprised.
i think this may be due to an effect that someone pointed out a few election cycles ago;
Democratic leaning voters are less likely to turn out at the polls on election day if their candidate is winning.
Conversely, Republican leaning voters are less likely to turn out at the polls if their candidate is losing.
with that in mind, the possibility that Fox is trying to inflate Gomez’s popularity as so not to discourage republican voters.
Good article, but please be careful when you point out others’ misspellings that your own copy is clean: “lede”
“Lede” is a journalistic term describing the first sentence, and it is spelled correctly. Just as a paragraph following the lede with the essential information is a “nut graf.” The only thing Mark is guilty of is using industry slang in a news article.
please follow you own advice – ‘lede’ is the correct spelling for the opening section of a news article 🙂
Oh the irony E Cummings.
Just to bring a none statistical analysis, Gomez’s face looks like he hasn’t had a thought of his own in 20 years, where as Markey shows signs of a personality.
Or maybe Markey’s weather worn face reflects he’s just old. That’s some other non statistical analysis as well. Duh!
Nate Silver is by no means an “obscure blogger”.
The “obscure blogger” being referenced is Dean Chambers, who claimed to have “unskewed” the polls and forecast a solid Republican victory. Nate Silver is the guy who got all 50 states correct.
I say let them hype these polling numbers as much as they like. The more they show Gomez with a sizeable lead the less likely Republicans will be to bother to vote. “He’s going to win, he doesn’t need vote.”