Pundits Make Electoral College Vote Predictions

Posted by on November 2, 2008 at 2:05 pm. NO Comments :

As the 2008 campaign winds to close, the pundit class is weighing with their electoral vote calls. It’s bad news for John McCain when everyone is predicting a Barack Obama win and the Republicans give Obama bigger victory margins than the Democrats. Below are the predicted Electoral College votes for Obama (270 needed to win).

Democrats:
Arianna Huffington: 318
Paul Begala: 325
Hilary Rosen: 333
Donna Brazile: 343
Eleanor Clift: 349
James Carville: 365
Democratic Average: 338.8

Republicans:
Alex Castellanos: 318
Matthew Dowd: 338
Ed Rollins: 352
George Will: 378
Republican Average: 346.5

Media
Chris Cillizza, Washington Post: 312
Craig Crawford, Congressional Quarterly: 333
David Gergen, CNN: 338
Mark Halperin, Time Magazine: 349
George Stephanopoulos, ABC: 353
Larry Sabato, UVA: 364
Media Average: 341.5

If you exempt McCain campaign operatives and rightist pod-people like Hannity, O’Reilly and Limbaugh, there are few Republican advocates expressing much hope. Last week Fox News Executive VP John Moody pronounced McCain’s campaign over. Even Rupert Murdoch predicted a landslide victory for Obama way back in May.

Are Republicans in some sort of shock? What does it mean when uber-conservative George Will puts Obama in landslide territory and suggests a stronger outcome for Obama than Democratic icon James Carville? Maybe it doesn’t mean a thing. Most of these people are wrong more often that not, so we shouldn’t put too much emphasis on what they are saying today. Still, it will be interesting to store this for future reference to see how these predictions compare with the actual results.

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John McCain Pulls A Double, Reverse Maverick

Posted by on November 2, 2008 at 10:11 am. NO Comments :

Last night John McCain appeared on Saturday Night Live. He follows his running mate’s inexplicably lame guest shot on the program two weeks ago. The best that can be said is that he didn’t bomb as thoroughly as Sarah Palin. At least he participated in the sketches and had a few punch lines.

Still, it is a bit surprising that the jokes primarily centered on his being a cash-strapped also ran. That is generally not a theme that a candidate wants to present two days before an election. Neither is it advisable to reveal your campaign’s closing strategy, which McCain did when discussing the matter on the Weekend Update segment. Asked what he would do if his present strategy were to fail, he offered a couple of notable alternatives:

  • The Reverse Maverick: That’s where I do whatever anybody tells me.
  • The Double Maverick: I’d just go totally berserk and freak everybody out.

In reality, he has already resorted to both of these tactics.

He began his campaign two years ago with the Reverse Maverick as he abandoned many of his long-held positions to suck up to the Bush loyalists and the Christian right. Examples include advocating the Bush tax cuts that he had voted against in the Senate, adopting the Bush position on torture that he had previously opposed, and embracing evangelicals like Pat Robertson and Jerry Falwell who he once called “agents of intolerance.”

He rushed headlong into the Double Maverick with his selection of Sarah Palin as his running mate. That certainly freaked everybody out. In addition, his behavior in response to the Wall Street meltdown when he promised to suspend his campaign and postpone a debate (neither of which he did), was nothing if not berserk.

A third strategy mentioned on SNL was “The Sad Grandpa.” I can’t say that we’ve witnessed bona fide examples of that, but we have seen verified examples of a close off-shoot, “The Grandpa Simpson.”



Sarah Palin’s Constitutional Frights

Posted by on October 31, 2008 at 2:05 pm. NO Comments :

It’s five days before the election and Sarah Palin has still never held a press conference. But that hasn’t stopped her from bashing the media of which she is so fearful. And the story is getting even scarier.

Having a pet newspaper is apparently not enough for Palin. Now she’s afraid that any criticism of her is a violation of her Constitutional rights:

“If [the media] convince enough voters that that is negative campaigning, for me to call Barack Obama out on his associations, then I don’t know what the future of our country would be in terms of First Amendment rights and our ability to ask questions without fear of attacks by the mainstream media.”

No one is infringing on her right to call Obama out, and she does it every day. It’s pretty much all she does. But the fact that she thinks the First Amendment exists to protect her from the media, or anyone else who disagrees with her, is an appropriately scary notion to come up in a Halloween day interview. She is arguing that she be permitted to bark out all manner of scurrilous slurs with abandon. However, she regards it as unconstitutional for anyone else to exercise their own freedom of expression in response. What she is advocating is nothing less than the infringement of the First Amendment rights of her critics.

This is a recurring theme for Republicans. If they are accusing you of something, you can bet they are doing it themselves. The strategy is to identify their own faults and then accuse their opponent of engaging in them. The accusation doesn’t even need to be true. McCain’s campaign manager, Rick Davis, admitted to this tactic. So whether it be negative campaigning, voter fraud, or questionable associations, the McCain camp is knee deep in hypocrisy.

Update: Is this an example of an unconstitutional attack by the mainstream media:
Sarah Palin Got Pranked


A Cry For Approval From John McCain

Posted by on October 31, 2008 at 1:02 pm. NO Comments :

John McCain just released a new ad that features an endorsement from none other than Barack Obama:

More than anything else, this ad refutes McCain’s allegation that Obama doesn’t work across party lines. It shows Obama as collegial and open-minded. It ought to help persuade independents that Obama is a man of reason and fairness who will give credit where it’s due.

As for the issue the ad addresses, environment voters are probably already voting for Obama. Why support a maverick Republican on the issue when you can support a candidate and a party that has been championing it for decades?

Finally, you know you’re on thin ice when you have to rely on the endorsement of your opponent. If McCain really thinks that Obama is an inexperienced, untested, dangerous, risky, Socialist pal of terrorists, why is he so anxious to have his approval?

Thanks for the kind words, John. Please play this ad everywhere.


Barack Obama Uprising / John McCain Pushing Daisies

Posted by on October 30, 2008 at 11:27 am. NO Comments :

Last night Barack Obama aired a 30 minute advertisement showcasing the struggles and hopes of four American families, while summarizing the policies he has been articulating throughout his campaign. The ad was considered an expensive and risky proposition. Nothing like it had been attempted since Ross Perot’s economics lessons 16 years ago. So how did he do?

The Obama-mercial was seen by 26.3 million viewers watching CBS, NBC and Fox, according to preliminary Nielsen ratings. This doesn’t take into account additional viewers on Univision, MSNBC and BET. The Hollywood Reporter’s analysis reveals that:

“The entertainment programming that usually runs in the slot on those three networks has averaged a cumulative 23.1 million viewers each week since the start of the season — 12% lower than the Obama ad total […] Obama improved NBC’s rating by 43% and CBS by 10% compared with last week. And keep in mind Obama was competing against himself.”

By all objective measures, the risk paid off in spades. The slickly produced special has been receiving positive reviews from everyone but Sean Hannity, who called it “embarrassing.” Ordinarily I would defer to Hannity’s assessment on embarrassment seeing as he is so well acquainted with it, but not in this case. The ratings domination of Obama’s ad was so complete that it totally destroyed McCain’s competing program, “Pushing Daisies.”

Wait a minute … Apparently Pushing Daisies was not a McCain production after all. Sorry for the error but with a title like that, how was I supposed to know?

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Sarah Palin Pines For Pet Press

Posted by on October 30, 2008 at 1:38 am. 1 Comments :

Just when you thought that irony had reached peaks that would not be revisited for a generation or two, along comes a contender that exceeds all expectations. Sarah Palin is such a contender, and today she demonstrates why the great ones can never be counted out.

The latest fake controversy to be heralded by right-wing media is the so called “discovery” of an article that was actually published six months ago in the Los Angeles Times about Columbia University professor Rashid Khalidi. Barack Obama was reported to have attended a party for Khalidi where some Palestinian guests made some incendiary remarks about Israel. Of course there is nothing tying Obama to the statements or the speakers, but that hasn’t stopped the press from latching onto the story and making irresponsible and unsubstantiated allegations.

At the front of the line is Fox News, where Brit Hume, Bill O’Reilly, Sean Hannity, etc., are already barking their patented phony outrage at Obama and the L.A. Times. At the crux of their complaints is their dismay that the Times will not release a video tape they have of the event. The Times issued a statement explaining that they received the tape from a source with an agreement that it would not be released. If Fox and its spokesmodels were actually journalists they would understand the concept of confidentiality and the privilege that exists between reporters and their sources. But we’re talking about Fox here, so an understanding of journalistic ethics may be too much to ask.

It’s not just Fox who is fanning the flames. John McCain and Sarah Palin have taken up the call and are using this affair to further pound on the press. This is where the irony comes in as Palin said this at a rally today:

“It must be nice for a candidate to have major news organizations looking after his best interests like that. Maybe some politicians would love to have a pet newspaper of their very own.”

This statement, coming from a woman who has coordinated her entire campaign with Fox News, is really a remarkable exhibition of chutzpah. She is herself a candidate with a major news organization looking after her interests. And she even has pet newspapers in Rupert Murdoch’s New York Post and Wall Street Journal. She and McCain have a relationship with a media company that is perhaps more intimate than any in history. And yet Palin is implying that Obama is being protected by the liberal L.A. Times who endorsed him for president. Did I mention that the Times has never before endorsed a Democrat for president? That’s right, despite having the words “Los Angeles” in the name, the Times has never been a liberal paper.

And by the way, Khalidi, that subversive professor that Obama was palling around with – he also received funding by a foundation that was chaired by, you guessed it, John McCain.

Ironic, huh?


The Fox Frame: October Surprise

Posted by on October 29, 2008 at 1:50 pm. NO Comments :

It is obvious to most honest observers that this is going to be a harsh year for Republicans. At the top of the list of victims, of course, is John McCain. His floundering campaign just gets more off track everyday. His aides are sending out resumes and looking to assign blame for their failure. Some have resorted to targeting Sarah Palin, who they have called a “diva” and a “whack job.”

But now they have adopted a more insidious strategic path that amounts to an “If you can’t beat ’em join ’em.” tactic. Talk about an October Surprise! With the help of Fox News, the McCain camp is now attempting to pass off their loser as a Democrat. They must believe that they can squeeze out a few extra votes by associating themselves with the party that is poised to sweep this year’s electoral contests.

It’s not really that surprising that McCain wants to realign himself with the Kool Kidz. From the beginning his campaign seemed jinxed. In the primary, he ran out of money and had to continue with a skeleton staff that worked for free. Then the Republican convention in St. Paul was delayed due to Hurricane Gustav. Then he announces Caribou Barbie as his running mate. Then he is blind-sided by an economic crisis after admitting that he doesn’t understand economics. Then he says he’ll suspend his campaign (which he doesn’t really do) to work on a resolution to the crisis (which he doesn’t resolve) and won’t participate in a debate with Barack Obama until the crisis is over (but he debates anyway).

Every issue with which McCain sought to identify fell flat. In the beginning it was his vaunted national security and foreign policy experience that would propel him to victory, but that never took hold. Then it was energy independence. This was anchored by a proposal for a gas tax holiday and the ubiquitous and ignorant chant of “Drill, baby drill.” But oil and gas prices have come down on their own, without his phony initiatives. Now he is desperately ranting about Bill Ayers, Joe the Plumber, false allegations of voter fraud, and Socialism – even Marxism!

These are the wails of an expiring beast in the wilderness. It’s almost sad. At least we all have the prospect of Obama’s victory next week to cheer us up.


The Race Tightens – For Cable News That Is

Posted by on October 29, 2008 at 1:44 am. 3 Comments :

The election season has been a boon to the cable TV biz. All three of the news networks have enjoyed higher ratings. But the distribution of the audience expansion has not been exactly equal.

Fox News, the long-time leader, retains its position and moves up from fourth to second. CNN has a respectable showing by bumping up four steps from ninth to fifth. But MSNBC pulls off the master stroke by leaping from twenty-third to ninth, marking its first appearance in the top ten.

Much of the strong performance of MSNBC has to be credited to their powerhouse prime time lineup grounded by Keith Olbermann’s Countdown. But the real difference was made by the launch of Rachel Maddow’s new program, which has burst onto the air to great acclaim and audience appreciation. Her program seems to have revitalized the whole prime time schedule. As a result MSNBC is more frequently having nights like last night where the three hour block from 7:00pm to 10:00pm was number one, beating both CNN and Fox.

It is because of performance like this that Bill O’Reilly is whining about the Nielsen ratings being fixed. He just can’t bring himself to accept that more people are tuning him out and Olbermann in. To O’Reilly, any evidence that he is not the popular icon he imagines himself to be, must have been forged by his enemies who conspire against him from their underground lairs. As for Maddow knocking out both Larry King and Hannity and Colmes, after just a few weeks on the air, there is little precedent for such instant success.

The writing is on the wall. With the three news networks all bunched much closer together, Fox News is becoming ever more hysterical as their agenda is being rejected by America. So they try harder to push ridiculous fabrications, but the result is they make themselves look even sillier and they lose more viewers. In the past few months they’ve gone from calling Barack Obama a Muslim to branding him a Socialist. Sometime between now and election day, look for Fox to reveal that Obama and the Boston Strangler were never photographed together. Hmmm…Coincidence?


Not That It Matters: O’Reilly vs Franken

Posted by on October 28, 2008 at 11:01 am. 3 Comments :

Last night Bill O’Reilly couldn’t hold back any longer. He had to let loose on his arch-nemesis, Al Franken, and he did. Not that it matters. I’m just posting this as a bit of comic relief.

A far-left extremist, Franken’s tenure on the Air America Radio network was punctuated by one word: hate. The man is a smear merchant and a rank liar, unqualified for any elected office […] If Franken is elected to the Senate you can expect him to vote for every ACLU-driven impediment to fighting terrorism. He will approve more spending for entitlements, and he will promote San Francisco values any way he can.

O’Reilly doesn’t really give a damn about the ACLU, terrorism, or San Francisco values (although he did give Al Qaeda permission to blow the city up). He is just inconsolable that Franken may just prevail and, once again, prove that O’Reilly is a washed up old geezer who only holds sway over a pathetic congregation of rightist lemmings.

I want Franken to win because he’ll bring intelligence, insight, and compassion to the Senate (and a healthy sense of the absurd). But in addition to that, I just love how much closer it will bring O’Reilly to the thorough mental collapse that is inevitable.