Day: 8/29/2024

Putting Trump’s Polling Delusions in Perspective – It’s Even Worse than He Thinks

Posted by on August 29, 2024 at 12:52 pm. 0 Comments :

It’s been a little more than a month since President Biden passed the torch to Kamala Harris. In that time her campaign has been firing on all cylinders. She has raised record amounts of money. She has united the Democratic Party, as well as many independents and Republicans, in support of her candidacy. And she has sparked a movement driven by her surging popularity.

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Donald Trump

Meanwhile, the former reality TV game show host, convicted felon, and adjudicated rapist, Donald Trump, has managed to single handedly sabotage his own campaign simply by opening his big mouth. Every utterance surpasses the previous one for ignorance and/or dishonesty. It’s all too much to effectively document, although some have tried…

SEE THIS: TRUMP IS TOAST: The Washington Post’s Laundry List of Trump’s Increasingly Bizarre Claims

Despite the obviously troubled waters in the Sea of MAGA, their Dear Leader is remaining steadfast in his beliefs about his promising electoral prospects. At least on the surface. He is telling the sycophantic press (the only ones he’ll speak with) that he is the frontrunner in the race for the White House. For instance, when he was recently asked by Fox News about Harris’ success, he provided a full-on fantasy reply saying that “No, she’s not having success. I’m having success. […] We’re leading in most of the polls.” He has been saying that a lot lately…

So this seems like a good time to introduce some reality to the question of Trump’s polling prowess. Let’s begin with the RealClear Politics poll of polls…

These are the 15 most recent polls that were taken over the past three weeks. And even the most glassy-eyed Trump cult disciple can readily see that it doesn’t look good for their guy. But a quick analysis shows that it’s even worse than it looks.

Ten of the 15 polls have Harris in the lead. Of the five where Trump is ahead, one of them is by Fox News. Which shouldn’t matter much to him because he posted on his floundering social media scam, Truth Social, this morning that “Fox Polls are Rigged and Worthless!”

The other four Trump-favored polls were all from the notoriously disreputable Trump-fluffing outfit, Rasmussen Reports. But if you look at those numbers, they are progressively worse for Trump in each poll, dropping each week from +5, to +4, to plus +3, to currently +2. Sinking like a stone comes to mind. At this rate, Rasmussen will have Harris ahead before the September 10 debate. And that is from the pollster most slanted toward Trump.

Democrats, however, must not put too much faith in any of these polls. They are not predictive of outcomes, They are merely snapshots in time. And Harris must maintain a commitment to winning every possible vote, in every state, right up until election day on November 5th.

She’s got more money than Trump; more volunteers; more popular support; and more energy (Trump is campaigning from the golf course, or in his jammies from Mar-a-Lago). And she must use those assets intelligently in order to emerge victorious. Run, as she says, as the underdog. And so far, she is doing everything right. Keep it up.

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