The first contest in the 2024 Republican primary race is is officially in the bag And the results for the Iowa caucuses were a seething cauldron of dullness and predictability. Donald Trump had led in the polls for months, against a slate of weak-kneed challengers who were either too afraid, or too infatuated, to criticize him.
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So, to no one’s surprise, Trump won the caucus vote in Iowa, a state where the Republican Party is staunchly to the right of Mussolini. This victory came despite the fact that Trump has been criminally indicted on 91 felony charges ranging from financial fraud, to inciting a violent insurrection, to stealing (and perhaps disseminating) classified documents, to undermining democracy. And if that weren’t enough, he has has been found liable for defaming and sexually assaulting writer, E. Jean Carroll.
SEE THIS: WTF? Trump Attorney Says He Should Be Free to Defame, Wrongfully Jail, and Incite Insurrections
The fact that Republicans still support a legally and ethically crippled basket case like Trump reveals the depth of rot in the once “Grand” old party. However, on closer examination of the electoral results, it is clear that there is much less to them than meets the eye.
First of all, Trump won the fiercely conservative Iowa constituency with a bare majority of 51% of the GOP faithful. That means that 49% – nearly half – of the caucus goers voted for somebody other than Dear Leader Trump. For a former president, and the de facto leader of the party, that’s an abysmal showing. It’s so bad that Fox News had to bring in former Trump flunky, Kellyanne Conway, to peddle the absurd spin that “the big loser tonight is – Joe Biden”? Yeah, that’s the ticket.
??? Fox News has Trump's former White House Senior Advisor on for analysis and she says that "the big loser tonight is – Joe Biden" ??? Who wasn't running!
Trump led with 51% – Which means that 49% of Republicans (nearly half) voted AGAINST Trump. That is NOT strength. https://t.co/JTCYDtI1pA
— News Corpse (@NewsCorpse) January 16, 2024
What’s more, there is a vast pool of Republicans who indicate that they will not vote for Trump if he is the nominee. An NBC poll found that “nearly half of Nikki Haley’s Iowa backers say they’d vote for Biden over Trump.” That could throw Iowa – and similar swing states – into Biden’s column in the general election.
But that’s not all. On Tuesday night after the caucus, Rachel Maddow noted that a poll of Iowa voters found that “a third of them think that if Donald Trump is convicted he is not fit to be president.” Then she added in a sly whisper, “I’m sorry, but he’s going to be convicted.”
Maddow: This means of people turning out to caucus in Iowa, a third of them think that if Donald Trump is convicted he is not fit to be president. In this incredibly conservative electorate, They’re going to nominate him nationwide? I'm sorry, but he's going to be convicted. pic.twitter.com/a89ghyuY8F
— Acyn (@Acyn) January 16, 2024
Indeed, with 91 counts pending, and abundant evidence supporting his guilt, it would highly unlikely that Trump would be acquitted on all of them. And if a third of his supporters abandon him, it’s difficult to see how he could pull off a victory in November. Especially when the months between now and then will find him in various courtrooms defending himself on all manner of civil and criminal offenses.
For example. on the day after his Iowa victory, he went immediately to Manhattan where he is being tried for the second time on allegations of defamation against Carroll, the woman he raped. And on the same morning of that hearing, Trump was busy posting insults directed at Carroll on his failing social media scam, Truth Social. In about half an hour he posted 30 such insults, most of which were personal in nature and had nothing to do with the case.
Given Trump’s weakness as both a candidate and a human being, his path back to the White House will be strewn with obstacles. He is alienating Republican voters who support his opponents. And with his big mouth and ignorant bluster, he seems to be intent on helping prosecutors to prevail in court. Consequently, he is proving, as he often does, to be his own worst enemy.
That’s something that Biden and the Democrats are prepared to take full advantage of. Biden has already broken records for fundraising. And if the media covers it honestly, the booming economy and popular legislative agenda (that was even recognized briefly on Fox News) will result in improved approval ratings and a second term for Joe Biden and Kamala Harris.
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I sure hope you’re right. You agree with every news channel I’ve listened to, and that’s plenty. Right now I feel like if I never see another TV it’ll be too soon. But I know I’ll either wind up in front of the TV come election night and find more news online. The media should cover Biden’s accomplishments, even Wall Street is pivoting to a rosier prediction per the Fed. It doesn’t see a recession or a crash in the future, more of a booming economy and falling prices. Inflation is down. Rate cuts! are what the Fed is looking at. This is all from some financial magazines I’ve read. Also, a mailing from Manward Press (another financial magazine). The media should start covering Biden as much as they do Trump. Otherwise, the Republican playbook will remain “If we pass something that hurts the people, blame the Democrats. If they pass something that helps the people, take the credit.” We’ve got to stop letting them get away with that.